文章编号：1672-3104(2017)05-0144-08

摘 要： 利用农民工大型专项数据调查发现，农民工迁移预期类型并非是简单的“入户”或“返乡”二选一，近半数的农民工迁移预期属于“悬浮型”或“双向型”。人均耕地面积、城市属性、打工地务工时长对农民工迁移行为预期具有重要影响。这提示地方政府若能准确把握农民工迁移行为预期及其规模，将有助于政府选择恰适的城镇化发展路径。

关键词： 迁移行为预期；融入型；回流型；双向型；悬浮型

Abstract: Based on the large scale survey data of migrant workers，the present study finds that migration behavior expectation of migrant workers is not a simple alternative between “Stay” or “Return”. Half of the migrant workers belong to the “Suspension” or “Two-Way” model. The per capita arable land area, the city qualities and the length of working hours in city have an important influence on migrant workers’ migration behavior expectation. This suggests that if local governments can accurately grasp the expectation and scale of migrant workers’ migration behavior, it will help them choose the path of urbanization development.